Are U.S. Refinery Incidents Increasing? A Clearer Look at the Data, the Debate, and When the Trend Began

Multiple independent datasets indicate that U.S. refinery incidents, especially fires and explosions, have increased in recent years. However, industry-reported process safety metrics complicate the picture. This article summarizes the evidence, stakeholder perspectives, and when the upward trend appears to have begun.

Evidence of Increasing Incidents

Public incident compilations show an increase in major refinery events. An analysis by Arnold & Itkin LLP (n.d.) reported that refinery explosions tripled from 2018 to 2022 compared to earlier years⁽¹⁾. Data from SpillTracker.org recorded 96 petrochemical incidents in 2023 and 132 in 2024, indicating a meaningful rise.⁽²⁾

In contrast, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) reports that Tier 1 process safety event rates have dropped by ~50% over the past decade⁽³⁾. AFPM's Sustainability Report further notes that refineries remain among the safer industrial manufacturing sectors. Table 1, below, shows the API 754/AFPM definitions for Tier 1 and Tier 2 safety events:

Table 1. API 754/AFPM definitions for Tier 1 and Tier 2 safety events ⁽⁴⁾

Figure 1. API Recommended Practice 754 ⁽⁴⁾

In last week's blog, Why We Still See Refinery Fires - More Than 30 Years After OSHA 1910.119, I researched all of the Tier 1 and 2 safety incidents from 1994 through 2025. The claim from AFPM, that "Tier 1 process safety event rates have dropped by ~50% over the past decade", is only valid through the public data to 2022⁽⁷⁾. This public data does show a decrease in incident rate from 2011 to 2022. However, let's examine AOC's graph below, which presents our research from 2015 through 2025:

Figure 2. Reported Incidents and Injuries Over the Last Decade

As illustrated by the blue trend line, the number of reported incidents decreased from 2015 to 2022, but from 2023 to the present has definitely shown an uptick. Also, the number of reported incidents in 2015 is the same as in 2025.

Interpreting Conflicting Trends

Public datasets capture fires, explosions, leaks, and releases, whereas AFPM counts only Tier 1 and 2 process safety events. The interesting part of the data we found in the public record, everything could be classified as Tier 1 or 2. The definitional gap between the researched public data and sources AFPM and Arnold & Itkin LLP is the date range for the analysis, and this contributes to the appearance of conflicting interpretations.

When Did the Increase Begin?

Multiple sources point to 2018 as the inflection point. Arnold & Itkin LLP (n.d.)⁽¹⁾ identify 2018 as the start of the tripling trend. The 2018 Husky Superior Refinery explosion⁽⁵⁾ is often cited as part of this shift. An investor analysis⁽⁶⁾ shows refinery fires and explosions nearly quadrupling from 2019-2024 compared with the previous six years. The graph above shows the beginning of the upward trend to be 2022. Regardless of the year, all three sources agree that the trend is increasing.

Why?

The reasons for the increase are probably multiple. Of course, certain journalists report that federal oversight is "disappearing," even as major refinery explosions occur. The present administration appears to believe that the United States Chemical Safety Board (CSB) is redundant, and its function should reside within OSHA or the EPA. I have personally witnessed that for the incidents in the news this year, there seem to be fewer investigations announced. This is by no means the only or even a major contributing factor. I believe the major contributors are:

1. Many facilities have focused on compliance-based PSM, checking boxes to satisfy OSHA rather than performance-based safety management. Procedures exist, but are not always followed or kept current
2. Most refineries are decades old, many built in the 1950s–1970s, and continue to operate far beyond their original design life
3. A strong process safety culture is crucial but difficult to sustain
4. Complacency sets in when a plant operates for years without a major event
5. OSHA's resources for process safety inspections are limited; few inspectors specialize in PSM

Conclusion

Public-facing incident data suggests a real increase in fires and explosions beginning around 2018, and AOC's research indicates 2020. The industry-reported process safety metrics that suggest long-term improvement are misleading since the data begins in 2012 and runs through 2022. Taken together, the rise in high-consequence incidents remains a significant concern for worker safety and environmental protection. My prayer for this holiday season is that the industry takes the next step to performance-based safety management, and all of the people who work in those types of facilities go home every night the same way they arrive, vertical.

REFERENCES

1. "Plant & Refinery Explosions Tripled in Frequency from 2018-2022", Arnold & Itkin LLP. (n.d.), https://www.arnolditkin.com/blog/plant-accidents/plant-refinery-explosions-tripled-in-frequency-f/
2. "Petrochemical incident database", SpillTracker.org., https://www.spilltracker.org/
3. "2022 Sustainability Report", American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), https://www.afpm.org/system/files/attachments/WEB_FINAL_AFPM_2022_Sustainability_Report_220228.pdf
4. "Presentation on API Recommended Practice 754", 2024, Americal Petroleum Institute (API), https://info.arpel.org/hubfs/Archivos%202024%20%5BEva%5D/2024%5BCursos%20y%20Eventos%5D%20-%20fotos%2C%20gr%C3%A1ficos%20y%20archivos/Seguridad%20de%20Procesos%20I%20API%20-%20IOGP/ARPEL%20Webinar_API%20RP%20754%20Process%20Safety_Para%20Compartir.pdf
5. "2018 Husky Energy Refinery explosion", 2025, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Husky_Energy_Refinery_explosion
6. "Rising US Refinery Fire Incidents: Implications for Energy Infrastructure Resilience", 2025, AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/rising-refinery-fire-incidents-implications-energy-infrastructure-resilience-2510/
7. "Process Safety Performance Metrics", American Fuel & Petroleum Manufacturers (AFPM), https://www.afpm.org/safety-programs/safety-statistics-programs/process-safety-performance-metrics
8. "API RP 754: Process Safety Performance Indicators for the Refining and Petrochemical Industries", 2021, American Petroleum Institute (APM), https://www.apiwebstore.org/standards/754

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